The Buffalo Bills (3-0) visit the Baltimore Ravens (1-2) on “Sunday Night Football” to close out the day’s slate of games. Led by MVP favorite Josh Allen (+225), the Bills look to go 4-0 (they were one of five unbeaten teams entering Sunday’s action).
Baltimore, meanwhile, enters Week 4 after edging the Dallas Cowboys last week for their first win of the season. After starting the season with two losses, Lamar Jackson completed 12 of 15 passes for 182 yards and touchdown with an 80% completion percentage in Week 4. He also rushed for 87 yards and one touchdown on 14 carries.
Despite being unbeaten, the Bills are road underdogs for Sunday’s matchup.
Odds current as of publish time, courtesy of ESPN BET
Game lines
Spread: Ravens -2.5
Money line: Ravens (-135), Bills (+115)
Over/Under: 46.5
First-half spread: Ravens -0.5 (-105), Bills +0.5 (-115)
Bills total points: 22.5 (over -115/under -115)
Ravens total points: 23.5 (over -120/under -110)
The props
Passing
Josh Allen total passing yards: 274.5 (over +105/under -135)
Allen total passing TDs: 1.5 (over -165/under +130)
Lamar Jackson total passing yards: 224.5 (over -145/under +115)
Jackson total passing TDs: 1.5 (over +105/under -135)
Rushing
Derrick Henry total rushing yards: 69.5 (over -110/under -120)
Jackson total rushing yards: 59.5 (over -105/under -125)
James Cook total rushing yards: 59.5 (over +105/under -135)
Allen total rushing yards: 29.5 (over -115/under -115)
Receiving
Khalil Shakir total receiving yards: 79.5 (over -110/under -120)
Zay Flowers total receiving yards: 49.5 (over -125/under -105)
Dalton Kincaid total receiving yards: 39.5 (over -130/under -100)
Keon Coleman total receiving yards: 29.5 (over -110/under -120)
Mark Andrews total receiving yards: 29.5 (over -115/under -114)
Isaiah Likely total receiving yards: 24.5 (over -135/under /+105)
Rashod Bateman total receiving yards: 29.5 (over +105/under -135)
Cook total receiving yards: 19.5 (over -125/under -105)
Curtis Samuel total receiving yards: 19.5 (over -120/under -110)
Ben Solak’s pick
If you thought the Josh Allen hype was wild after a Week 3 drubbing of the listless Jacksonville Jaguars, wait and see what happens if Allen goes thermonuclear in Week 4 against the Ravens.
The potential for an Allen explosion is sky high because the Ravens are a pass-funnel defense. They have the best run defense in the league by success rate and second best by EPA, but against dropbacks, they’re below average in both metrics.
Of course, those numbers are a little skewed by the early leads Baltimore built over the Las Vegas Raiders and Dallas Cowboys. But even when we filter out plays in which either team had a win probability over 90%, this is still a top-two run defense and an average pass defense. Next Gen Stats has a “run % over expectation” number that adjusts play calls for contexts like the scoreboard and down and distance, and it agrees: No team has seen more dropbacks over expectation than the Ravens’ defense through three weeks.
Improvements could be on the way for Baltimore. Rookie cornerback Nate Wiggins returned to the starting lineup after sitting out Week 2 because of a neck injury, and edge rusher Yannick Ngakoue rejoined the team to improve its pass-rush presence. But neither of those additions move the needle enough with Buffalo coming to town.
Through three weeks, no team has a better dropback game than the Bills, who are first in success rate and first in EPA (by a country mile, too). Everything about the Bills’ new-look passing game is humming. The ball is coming out fast — Allen’s 2.83 time to throw is the fastest of his career — because the Bills’ QB is willing to distribute underneath (72.2% of his passes are under 10 air yards, which is the highest percentage of his career). Because the passing game is working as expected, only 7.4% of pressures on Allen are ending in sacks (again, the best mark of his career, but also the best number in the league right now). Allen feels like an elite NBA point guard at the moment, perfectly capable of executing the offense, and when the shot clock gets low, equally capable of creating a shot himself.
I’m pretty suspicious of the Ravens’ ability to slow down this offense. The Bills don’t need the early-down running game to get their offense working, so even if the Ravens’ stifling run defense forces Joe Brady to call a one-dimensional game, the Bills will be comfortable. The Ravens played a lot of man coverage against Dallas, challenging anyone but CeeDee Lamb to beat them. That won’t work against the Bills, who have an array of good pass catchers at a variety of positions.
The Ravens would then need to win this game on offense — which is possible. Baltimore’s offensive line, which looked like a major weakness entering the season, has improved each week and had a solid game against Dallas.
Of course, most running games will look good against Dallas’ defensive front. But that doesn’t change the recipe for success against Buffalo: get heavy personnel on the field and run the ball, as the Bills play almost exclusively four-down fronts and have generally light personnel (with Ed Oliver, Dorian Williams and Cam Lewis) on the field. The Ravens have played more 12 personnel than any team in the league this year, and the Bills will almost certainly match that with nickel personnel, fearful of the pass-catching prowess of both Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely. If the Ravens have success on offense, it will be with Derrick Henry on the ground.
Both offenses should have success Sunday night — so lean to the over, right? But with all the quick underneath completions the Bills get and the ever-churning running game the Ravens have, I think this clock sprints to the finish. Doubly so when you look at how often Lamar Jackson and Allen turn dropbacks into scrambles (they’re second and third in scramble rate, respectively), which eliminates incompletions and keeps the clock moving.
I don’t want the total. Instead, I want the Bills +2.5. I like Buffalo to put points up early in the passing game and try to get the Ravens out of their ideal offensive script. And even if the Bills fall behind early, I have a lot of faith in Allen’s ability to throw their way back into the game. I’ll be looking to live bet this game in the event of an early Ravens lead, as the Ravens have struggled to maintain second-half leads for years now, and we know Allen is prolific in a deficit.
The bet: Bills +2.5 (-110)
Betting trends
Courtesy ESPN Research
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Lamar Jackson is 14-7 ATS in prime-time games (6-1 ATS in past seven starts; only loss came in Week 1 this season).
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Josh Allen is 4-1 outright and ATS as an underdog in prime-time games.
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Since 2019, the Ravens are 18-7-2 ATS when the line is between +3 and -3. Lamar Jackson is 15-5-2 ATS in that situation in his career.
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Ravens overs are 3-0 this season. Unders are 13-4 in Bills road games since 2022.
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Allen is 18-10-1 ATS in his career as an underdog. Allen is also 27-17-2 ATS on the road and 13-6-1 ATS as a road underdog.
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Jackson is 15-22 ATS as a home favorite (0-1 outright this season).
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Prime-time unders are 6-5 this season and 76-47-1 since 2022. Unders in “Sunday Night Football” games are 29-10 in that span. Road teams in prime-time games are 70-54 ATS in that span.
