There are a pair of massive top-10 showdowns this weekend in college basketball, two games that will have a sizable impact on next week’s Power Rankings.
The first is Tennessee’s trip to Auburn on Saturday. Tennessee has been up and down since winning its first 14 games, while Auburn is without Johni Broome and has looked vulnerable for the first time in a month in two of its past three games.
Iowa State’s loss last weekend to West Virginia means any slipup from Auburn and Duke moves up to No. 1 — although the Blue Devils have a difficult trip to Wake Forest (with its 10-0 home record) this weekend.
Next up is Kansas hosting Houston. We’ve had this game circled on our calendars for weeks, particularly for Houston. The Cougars have otherworldly metrics. The numbers show that Kelvin Sampson’s team should be considered alongside Auburn and Duke as national title favorites, but they haven’t exactly beaten anyone of note, with their best win coming at home against West Virginia. A victory in Allen Fieldhouse would certainly count.
Meanwhile, it’s a chance for Kansas to change the narrative about itself moving forward; the Jayhawks have beaten Duke and Michigan State, but the preseason No. 1 team has not quite lived up to expectations.
Every weekend during conference play offers a slew of intriguing matchups, but the top of the rankings could look dramatically different at this time next week because of these two games.
Previous ranking: 1
Tahaad Pettiford had one of the best introductions to big-time college basketball of any freshman this season, scoring 21 points and making five 3s in the second game of his career against Houston. He was up and down for a few weeks, but continued to have big performances in big games: 14 points against Iowa State, 20 points against Duke and 18 points against Purdue.
Now with Johni Broome, Pettiford has been a more consistent factor offensively. He has scored in double figures in five straight games, including 24 points and five 3s in last weekend’s win at Georgia.
Next seven days: vs. Tennessee (Jan. 25), at LSU (Jan. 29)
Previous ranking: 3
The buzz around Khaman Maluach entering college centered on his 7-foot-2 size, incredible wingspan and ability to block shots. While he’s been a deterrent for opponents around the rim — Duke ranks second in 2-point defense nationally — Maluach is also starting to come on as a consistent offensive piece.
Over his past five games, he’s averaging 11.6 points and 9.0 rebounds, including back-to-back double-doubles against Notre Dame (19 and 10) and Miami (12 and 15). He’s shooting 80% from the field over that span.
Next seven days: at Wake Forest (Jan. 25), vs. NC State (Jan. 27)
Previous ranking: 2
At Saint Mary’s, Joshua Jefferson developed a reputation as a glue guy, an excellent defender who could do a little bit of everything. But at Iowa State, he’s been a key cog in the offense and a primary reason the Cyclones have an attack explosive enough to reach the Final Four.
Jefferson is averaging career highs across the board, at both ends of the floor, and has scored in double figures in 12 of his past 13 games — a run capped by an enormous performance in Tuesday’s win over UCF: 30 points, 7 rebounds, 5 assists and 4 steals to go with three 3-pointers despite having entered the game with only five 3-pointers on the season.
Next seven days: at Arizona State (Jan. 25), at Arizona (Jan. 27)
Previous ranking: 8
Alabama hit the 100-point mark for the second consecutive game and the sixth time this season, which is the most of any team in the country — but it wasn’t Mark Sears or Grant Nelson leading the way against Vanderbilt. Aden Holloway and Mouhamed Dioubate came off the bench to score 22 points apiece, with Holloway making four 3-pointers and Dioubate grabbing 10 rebounds. Dioubate is particularly interesting, given that his role has fluctuated all season, but the absence of Derrion Reid for the past three games has allowed the active 6-foot-7 forward to thrive.
Next seven days: vs. LSU (Jan. 25), at Mississippi State (Jan. 29)
Previous ranking: 6
It was only right that Will Richard, who had his best game in SEC play on Wednesday night, hit the winning shot to give Florida a one-point road win at South Carolina. He finished with 22 points, four rebounds and three steals, going 3-for-5 from 3-point range. Richard has now hit at least three 3s in four of his past nine games and racked up multiple steals in nine of his past 11 games.
Next seven days: vs. Georgia (Jan. 25)
Previous ranking: 4
Chaz Lanier’s shooting struggles appear to be behind him.
Prior to the loss to Vanderbilt last weekend, Lanier had averaged 8.3 points on 18.6% shooting over his previous three games, going just 4-for-24 from 3-point range. He began to snap the cold streak against Vandy (despite missing the game-tying free throw), finishing with 17 points and four 3-pointers. But against Mississippi State on Tuesday, he put to bed any questions about a prolonged slump, going for 23 points and five 3-pointers to build momentum entering Saturday’s trip to Auburn.
Next seven days: at Auburn (Jan. 25), vs. Kentucky (Jan. 28)
Previous ranking: 5
Kentucky’s defense is a fascinating study. After holding its first seven opponents to below one point per possession, including Duke to just 0.96, the Wildcats have allowed nine of their last 11 opponents to exceed that mark. In SEC play, they have the league’s top-ranked offense but the worst defense — by a sizable margin.
Part of what’s underlying that defensive ranking is the fact they’ve already played Alabama and Florida, but still, it doesn’t bode well for the Wildcats: According to BartTorvik.com, of the 10 teams since 2008 with similar efficiency profiles, only four have advanced past the first weekend of the NCAA tournament, and zero have reached the Final Four. The 10 teams averaged just 1.2 wins in the tournament, despite six of them receiving 3-seeds or better.
Next seven days: at Vanderbilt (Jan. 25), at Tennessee (Jan. 28)
Previous ranking: 9
Weeks ago, we said Houston had a real chance to string together some wins and move up in the rankings before the schedule stiffened up — and that’s exactly what’s happened. The Cougars have won 11 games in a row after shellacking Utah on Wednesday, holding the Utes to 36 points, and now have road games at Kansas and West Virginia before returning home to face Texas Tech.
Houston is back to having the No. 1-ranked defense at KenPom after allowing just one opponent over the 11-game winning streak to score one point per possession.
Next seven days: at Kansas (Jan. 25), at West Virginia (Jan. 29)
Previous ranking: 11
With KJ Adams sidelined the past two games, Bill Self opted to go with a bigger lineup, slotting in 6-foot-9 freshman Flory Bidunga alongside Hunter Dickinson down low. The Jayhawks had success in stretches earlier this season playing the two bigs next to each other, and some of that has carried over to the past week of action. Bidunga had six points and nine boards against Kansas State, then followed it up with his best game in a Kansas uniform: 10 points, 10 rebounds and four blocks at TCU on Wednesday.
Next seven days: vs. Houston (Jan. 25), vs. UCF (Jan. 28)
Previous ranking: 7
We’ve discussed Marquette’s turnover advantage in this space before; the Golden Eagles turn it over at a lower rate than any team in the Big East and force turnovers at a higher rate than any team in the Big East. They rank in the top 10 nationally in both categories.
They’ve lost the turnover battle just twice all season: at Dayton and last weekend vs. Xavier. They lost both games. The third game they lost was at Iowa State, when they had just five points off turnovers compared to Iowa State’s 10. They got back on the right track against Seton Hall on Tuesday, though, forcing 24 turnovers.
Next seven days: vs. Villanova (Jan. 24), at Butler (Jan. 28)
Previous ranking: 13
A&M shook off its two-game losing streak to notch back-to-back wins over LSU and Ole Miss — the latter of which was an absolute 63-62 stunner in Oxford on Wednesday. The Aggies didn’t lead the entire game until Manny Obaseki, who scored 12 crucial points in the second half, buried a 3-pointer from the wing with 12.5 seconds left to knock off the Rebels.
One positive note for Buzz Williams has to be the way A&M won both games with Wade Taylor struggling after missing two games with injury. Taylor totaled just 16 points in the two games, shooting 5-for-25.
Next seven days: at Texas (Jan. 25), vs. Oklahoma (Jan. 28)
Previous ranking: 20
It’s fitting that the catalyst for Michigan State’s biggest win of the season — Sunday’s victory over Illinois — was Tre Holloman, whose insertion into the Spartans’ starting lineup jump-started their 11-game winning streak. They haven’t lost since Tom Izzo moved Holloman into the starting five and dropped Frankie Fidler to the bench, going 11-0.
Holloman finished his first start with 19 points and seven assists against North Carolina and is averaging 9.5 points and 4.3 assists in 11 games as a starter, shooting better than 38% from 3-point range. He has also hit double figures in three of his past four games.
Next seven days: at Rutgers (Jan. 25), vs. Minnesota (Jan. 28)
Previous ranking: 17
Purdue’s loss to Ohio State on Tuesday was one of the biggest eye-openers of conference play thus far. Purdue had won 26 games in a row at Mackey Arena and entered the game on a seven-game winning streak. Ohio State had lost three in a row and four of its past five, and got down by as many as 16 points in the first half. But the Boilermakers completely collapsed in the second half, giving up 45 points and going nearly five minutes without a point late in the game. It’s worth noting that Purdue has made a total of eight 3-pointers in the past three games — their three lowest totals of the season.
Next seven days: vs. Michigan (Jan. 24)
Previous ranking: 14
The Illini’s loss to Michigan on Sunday did nothing to dissuade me from picking them as a Final Four team, as it took a perfect storm — Kasparas Jakucionis’ foul trouble, an awful 3-point shooting performance, their second-worst defensive effort of the season and a not-so-friendly whistle — for them to lose. But it is worth noting some of their win/loss splits on the offensive end: In wins, they shoot 35.5% from 3, score 16.8 second-chance points and average 91.9 points. In losses, those numbers drop to 24.5% from 3, 9.6 second-chance points and 73.4 total points.
Next seven days: vs. Maryland (Jan. 23), vs. Northwestern (Jan. 26)
Previous ranking: 10
It was notable that Dana Altman got double-digit points from two players off the bench Tuesday, with Keeshawn Barthelemy scoring 11 and Supreme Cook racking up 13 in just 11 minutes. Oregon is averaging 26.4 bench points per game, which ranks in the top 50 nationally according to CBB Analytics. But in the Ducks’ past five games, they’re down at 19.8 bench points per game. EvanMiya.com also highlights that they’re unbeaten when they receive at least 42.7% of their points from their bench — and just 6-3 when the bench scores less than that number.
Next seven days: at Minnesota (Jan. 25)
Previous ranking: 19
After winning 14 of its 15 first games, Mississippi State has now lost three of its last four, with the lone win coming over Ole Miss in overtime last weekend. The defense has struggled mightily, allowing at least 1.09 points per possession in the last four games, while the Bulldogs had their two worst offensive performances of the season against Auburn and Tennessee.
Josh Hubbard, one of the best guards in the country through the first two months of the season, is also cooling off. After averaging 17.7 points on 39.0% 3-point shooting in his first 14 games, Hubbard is averaging 13.0 points on 26.2% 3-point shooting in his past five.
Next seven days: at South Carolina (Jan. 25), vs. Alabama (Jan. 29)
Previous ranking: 16
Vladislav Goldin has been producing at an entirely different level the past few weeks. The Florida Atlantic transfer was slow out of the gates, scoring in single digits in five of his first six games, averaging just 7.7 points and 4.7 rebounds over that stretch. But he hasn’t scored fewer than 11 points since then, averaging 20.8 points and 6.8 rebounds over his last 12 games, shooting better than 67% from the field and blocking nearly two shots per game. That run includes a 36-point performance against UCLA and 31 points against Northwestern.
Next seven days: at Purdue (Jan. 24), vs. Penn State (Jan. 27)
Previous ranking: 12
Memphis could emerge as an interesting team to watch come Selection Sunday. Not many teams can match the Tigers’ collection of good wins over Michigan State, Ole Miss, Missouri, UConn and Clemson. They’re also the only team in these rankings with a Quad 3 loss, which came back in December against Arkansas State.
They’re at risk of a damaging defeat in nearly every game they take the court, given the competition — they don’t face another team with a NET ranking in the double-digits the rest of the way. A road trip to UAB in early March might be their only Quad 2 game remaining.
Next seven days: vs. Wichita State (Jan. 23), vs. UAB (Jan. 26)
Previous ranking: 18
Chris Bear’s team has suffered two heartbreaking losses in the span of four days. On Saturday, Ole Miss lost in overtime on the road at Mississippi State, then followed that up by blowing a double-digit second-half lead and losing at home vs. Texas A&M on Wednesday. The next couple weeks could right the ship — or could send Ole Miss tumbling down the Power Rankings.
The Rebels head on the road to face Missouri this weekend before returning home for three games: vs. Texas, vs. Auburn, vs. Kentucky. Ole Miss has now been held below one point per possession in four of its past seven games; that needs to change during this upcoming stretch.
Next seven days: at Missouri (Jan. 25), vs. Texas (Jan. 29)
Previous ranking: 15
UConn narrowly avoided what could have been a brutal home loss to Butler on Tuesday, holding off the Bulldogs in overtime. It came on the heels of a home loss to Creighton, when the Huskies were held to fewer than 70 points for the third straight game. They continue to feel the effects of Liam McNeeley’s injury against DePaul on Jan. 1: From the start of the season until McNeeley’s injury, they ranked No. 2 in adjusted offensive efficiency at BartTorvik.com, shooting nearly 60% inside the arc and 37% from 3. They were also No. 14 overall in KenPom entering the DePaul game. Now, the Huskies are down to No. 35 in KenPom, and their adjusted offensive efficiency since McNeeley was injured is No. 166 in Torvik’s rankings.
Next seven days: at Xavier (Jan. 25), vs. DePaul (Jan. 29)
Previous ranking: Unranked
Second-half St. John’s is starting to become a thing. The Red Storm had yet another comeback win Wednesday, erasing a 16-point deficit to beat Xavier in overtime. It was the team’s third win after trailing by at least 15 points, tied for the most in Division I with Princeton — they’ve now won 12 of their last 13 games and sit atop the Big East standings.
One negative from the win over Xavier is the Red Storm’s shooting disappeared again. After three straight games of making at least seven 3s, the Johnnies shot just 1-for-12 from 3 — the third time in the past six games they’ve made two or fewer 3s.
Next seven days: at Georgetown (Jan. 28)
Previous ranking: Unranked
Pat Kelsey already had an established style when he took over at Louisville last spring: Play fast, shoot a lot of 3s. It worked for him at Winthrop, it worked for him at Charleston, and it’s working for him at Louisville — and still, nobody was prepared for the Cardinals’ performance on Tuesday against SMU. They won on the road by 25, scoring 98 and making 19 3-pointers, tied for the most all-time in an ACC game. Reyne Smith made 10 3-pointers, the most in a game in Louisville history, while Chucky Hepburn dished out 16 assists, also a single-game program record.
Kelsey has the Cardinals on a nine-game winning streak.
Next seven days: vs. Wake Forest (Jan. 28)
Previous ranking: Unranked
While Texas Tech’s résumé hasn’t quite caught up yet, the Red Raiders’ efficiency-based metrics get them into the rankings this week. They’re in the top 12 of the BPI, KenPom and BartTorvik.com, with a top 10 offense nationally — and the best in the Big 12 in conference play.
Grant McCasland’s team has won five of its past six games, and its only four losses have come by a combined 11 points. Should the Red Raiders take care of business at home against Oklahoma State and TCU in the next week, a huge stretch against Houston, Baylor and Arizona awaits.
Next seven days: vs. Oklahoma State (Jan. 26), vs. TCU (Jan. 29)
Previous ranking: 23
Losing by two points on the road at UCLA doesn’t send the Badgers careening out of the rankings, especially since Greg Gard’s team entered the week on a seven-game winning streak.
On the plus side, John Tonje regained his shooting stroke. One of the elite transfers in the country over the first month of the season — scoring 41 points against Arizona and 33 points against Pitt — Tonje slowed down considerably in December, then was held scoreless on three shots at USC last Saturday. But he bounced back in the loss to the Bruins on Tuesday, making six 3s and scoring 24 points.
Next seven days: vs. Nebraska (Jan. 26), at Maryland (Jan. 29)
Previous ranking: 21
Missouri’s four-game winning streak ended with a thud Tuesday, scoring 53 points in a loss to Texas. It was the Tigers’ worst offensive performance of the season, scoring just 0.86 points per possession — only the second time all season they’ve been held below one point per possession. Some of their win-loss splits are starting to become fairly eye-opening. In wins, they shoot 39.4% from 3 — good enough for eighth the country. In losses, they’re down at 25.6% — bad enough to rank next-to-last in the country. Points per game? 87.1 in wins, 68.3 in losses. First in offensive efficiency in wins, 304th in losses.
Next seven days: vs. Ole Miss (Jan. 25)
Dropped out: Gonzaga Bulldogs (No. 22), Arizona Wildcats (No. 24), Georgia Bulldogs (No. 25)
